Dana White's Contender Series predictions: Full card picks Tuesday

Who doesn’t love to bet on Tuesday night amateur MMA fights?

Low-level, amateur UFC fights have been a staple of Dana White’s Contender Series where (at least) one fighter per night earns a contract with the UFC.

Tuesday, we have five fights on the docket and maybe some surprising picks, including one decorated kickboxer who is primed for a highlight reel showing.

The fight card is set to begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Dana White’s Contender Series

Victor Dias vs. Kevin Borjas

The biggest favorite on the card is Victor Dias (-375), who is primarily a grappler only.

Looking at some tape, he walks forward wildly swinging punches while standing and will have issues with strikers if he makes the UFC.

But his matchup with Kevin Borjas should be a bit easier, as Borjas trains out of Peru and is a total unknown.

Dias is a big favorite thanks to his grappling and camp pedigree at ATT – one of the best training facilities in the world.

Dias is -115 to win ITD (inside the distance) on Bet365, and this is your only play on this fight.

Expect a submission win Tuesday evening.

Reyes Cortez vs. Payton Talbot

Are you ready for a bantamweight matchup?

Payton Talbot is a slight favorite opposite Reyes Cortez, who we saw at the Contender Series in 2021 – a loss to Christian Rodriguez.

Cortez grappled extremely heavily in that fight, attempting 10 takedowns and only succeeding with two, but had some solid ground control.

Still, these types of fighters are not worth betting on these days because the judging criteria has flipped and damage is weight heavier than grappling control.

Talbot is going to be a much better striker, and Reyes’ toughness – which seems significant – might be the only thing that saves him from a knockout loss.

Betting Talbot moneyline (-150, DraftKings) for this bantamweight contest.

Caio Machado vs. Kevin Szaflarski

After opening as a pick ’em, Kevin Szaflarski has jumped to a -175 favorite opposite Caio Machado.

Machado is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with some creative striking, while Szaflarski will be looking to grapple with heavy top control.

Should this one hit the mat, Szaflarski will likely have the advantage.

He also is a massive 6-foot-6, while weighing 260.5 pounds.

Szaflarski is a rightful favorite here despite Machado’s striking advantage.

The official prediction is Machado will be a little too confident in his jiu-jitsu, go to the mat and run into massive problems.

Settle for the moneyline here on Szaflarski (-160, BetMGM) as a decision could be in the making for this one.

Tom Nolan vs. Bogdan Grad

There’s a massive size difference in this lightweight matchup, as Tom Nolan is 6-foot-3 while Bogdan Grad is 5-foot-9.

Nolan is fighting out of Eternal MMA and is very aggressive.

His clinch is an important piece of his game and should be a comfortable spot for him to land elbows and knees.

Grad is going to be very undersized here, but he seems to be a solid wrestler and does have solid ground and pound when on top.

Nolan’s takedown defense should be up to the test here and is worth betting at a solid -148 price on FanDuel.

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

Caesar Almeida vs. Lucas Fernando

Caesar Almeida has only fought three times in MMA and faces Lucas Fernando.

Almeida is also 35-years-old but he fought in kickboxing for years and even has a win over current UFC star Alex Pereira.

The stand-up should be a brutal mismatch, but this is an MMA fight and grappling is a piece of it.

Fernando was on the Brazilian national boxing team and he can go for takedowns.

He’s a -250 favorite and rightfully so based on Almeida’s opponents having a combined record of 5-30-1.

But that power is something to behold even if the grappling doesn’t go his way in the future.

Every fight starts on the feet.

Almeida by knockout in round one is +750 on Bet365, a wild line you won’t find elsewhere.

If you don’t have access to that you can take the moneyline at +220 on Caesars.

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